Paper 303 of 383
Published June 1, 2026
Geological forecasting often focuses upon observable conditions.
An alternative approach is to focus upon persistent constraints.
Conditions may change rapidly.
Constraints frequently change more slowly.
This paper evaluates whether long-duration constraint systems provide useful forecasting information through persistence, survivorship, inheritance, and recurrence.
Forecasts improve when they are anchored to relationships that survive change.
Persistence may therefore represent a measurable forecasting advantage.
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